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The Patriots are currently 15-0, and are looking to become the second team to ever have a perfect regular season.

But, how good are the Patriots really?  Perhaps they are just lucky?

P(Winning Each Game)

P(Going 15-0)

50%

0.003%

75%

1.336%

90%

20.589%

95.4842%

50.000%

From the chart above, if the Patriots really had a 50% chance of winning each of the first 15 games, then they were certainly lucky.  Not quite lottery winning lucky, but a team with a true 50% chance of winning each game should only have an 0.003% chance of winning the first 15 openers.

So what is a good estimate of the Patriot's winning chances against an average team, (on the premise that are initial conditions are held constant for the playing season)?  Looks like 95.5% is a good guess based on this season alone.

Another thing you might want to keep in mind is that the Patriots won 21 games in a row (18 regular season, 3 post-season) in the 2003-2004 seasons.

Pretty cool, huh?  Hope you get to catch the game against the Giants this Saturday at 8 pm EST (It will be on ABC and NBC)... 

Enjoy,

Jonathan Starr  Add to Google

Posted on Thursday, December 27, 2007 4:46 PM Personal , Sports , Statistics | Back to top


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